By RON HIGGINS, Journal Sports
BATON ROUGE – Jay Johnson is nearing the end of his 12th season as a college head baseball coach, the last three guiding LSU.
And while every year brings a unique set of expected and unexpected challenges, the 47-year-old Johnson figured he’d experienced most of them.
That is, until now for he and the defending national champions.
“I really pride myself on us winning close games,” Johnson said. “We’ve had some that we just have not finished out where you’re a pitch away from winning the Florida series, a pitch away from winning the Alabama series, and a pitch away from winning the Vanderbilt series.
“I don’t know that I’ve ever had all of those at one time before.”
LSU, 4-9 in SEC games this season in games decided by 2 runs or fewer, was one out away from beating Florida in Game 2 and Alabama in Game 1 but lost both. It led Vandy in Game 2 through seven innings and lost.
Flip those three series in favor of the Tigers and it means they’ve won 6 of 9 SEC series and are likely in line to host an NCAA tourney regional and possibly a Super Regional.
Instead, LSU (33-20, 10-17) has lost 6 of 9 SEC series heading into tonight’s 6 p.m. opener here in Alex Box Stadium vs. almost equally desperate Ole Miss (27-25, 11-16) in a regular season-ending league series that could be nicknamed the NCAA Tourney Bubble Invitational.
The Tigers, winners of their last 3 of 4 SEC series despite last weekend’s disaster at Alabama where they suffered 1-run losses in Game 1 and Game 3, is ranked No. 35 in the latest NCAA RPI. Ole Miss, winners of its last two SEC series (with 4 of 9 series wins for the year), is No. 24 in RPI.
As of Wednesday, Baseball America projected nine SEC teams, including Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Arkansas and Georgia serving as regional hosts, will receive NCAA tourney bids. There are 34 at-large invitations like LSU covets, but since most of the teams earning the 30 automatic berths as conference tournament champions won’t be among the top teams in RPI, teams like LSU with losing conference records have cloudy outlooks.
Baseball America listed LSU among the first four teams just missing being in the 64-team field and Ole Miss among the next four teams out after the first four teams out.
LSU needs a series sweep over Ole Miss or 2 of 3 wins over the Rebels and at least one win in next week’s SEC tourney starting Tuesday to have a fighting chance for an NCAA at-large invite when the brackets are announced May 27 at 11 a.m.
“We still have a chance because we didn’t lose very much outside the league (a 23-3 non-conference record), the third most non-conference wins (nationally),” Johnson said. “We have 13 wins against teams projected to be in the (NCAA tourney) field. We won a premier tournament (the Houston Astros Foundation Classic).”
LSU’s turnaround in the second half of SEC play can be somewhat attributed to an easier schedule than the first half.
But Tigers’ junior shortstop Michael Braswell III said he and his teammates have played with more belief after dropping its first five SEC series to Mississippi State, Florida, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Tennessee.
“When we played in Houston (in March) and we closed out some close games, we had the mindset at the end of games we were playing to win,” said Braswell III, a South Carolina transfer batting .293. “We got into SEC play and things started to go a bit sideways. We started playing not to lose rather than trying to win. But now, we go out there and we believe we’re the better team.”
LSU (33-20, 10-17 SEC) vs. Ole Miss (27-25, 11-16 SEC), Alex Box Stadium, Baton Rouge
SCHEDULE/PITCHING MATCHUP
Game 1: Tonight, 6 p.m. CT, SEC Network)
LSU –LSU – So. LH Gage Jump (4-1, 3.86 ERA, 60.2 IP, 17 BB, 74 SO)
OM –Jr. RH Riley Maddox (3-6, 5.68 ERA, 58.2 IP, 22 BB, 42 SO)
Game 2: Friday, 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
LSU –Jr. RH Luke Holman (7-3, 2.74 ERA, 72.1 IP, 30 BB, 100 SO)
OM –So. LH Liam Doyle (3-2, 5.29 ERA, 49.1 IP, 20 BB, 77 SO)
Game 3: Saturday, 1 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
LSU –TBA
OM –Jr. RH Mason Nichols (4-1, 3.50 ERA, 36.0 IP, 18 BB, 41 SO)
LSU-OLE MISS SERIES: LSU leads Ole Miss, 182-159, in a series that began in 1906. . .The Tigers won 8 of the past 12 regular-season series with Ole Miss. The Rebels lost 19 consecutive SEC series in Baton Rouge from 1983-2017. But he Rebels have won their last two series in Alex Box Stadium – a 2-1 series victory in 2019 and a three-game sweep in 2022.
A LOOK AT LSU: LSU is No. 5 in the SEC in team ERA (4.45), and the Tigers have recorded the second-highest total of strikeouts in the league with 583 Ks in 458.2 innings pitched. . .LSU is No. 8 in the league in team batting average (.282), and the Tigers’ total of 91 home runs is fifth best in the conference.
A LOOK AT OLE MISS: Ole Miss is No. 13 in the SEC in team batting average (.261), and the Rebels have collected 82 doubles, six triples, 73 homers and 50 steals in 58 attempts. . .The Ole Miss pitching staff is No. 13 in the SEC with a 5.91 ERA, and the Rebels have posted 509 strikeouts in 447.2 innings.
Contact Ron at ronhigginsmedia@gmail.com