Opinion by BRET H. MCCORMICK, Journal Sports

I cannot stand math.

Loathe it, actually. It was my least favorite subject in school. There’s a reason I became a journalist and then an English teacher. 

When my students ask for my help with any math assignment, I cringe. Don’t get me wrong. I do my best to help them, but it usually ends with me having a headache. 

Still, as much as I try to avoid math, I find myself staring at my calculator and poring over power-point equations as we near the end of the prep football regular season. 

We will find out which 208 teams make the playoffs when the LHSAA releases the eight Select and Non-Select brackets on Sunday. But why wait? Let’s take a deep dive into where our local Rapides Parish schools stand here in Week 10. 

Before we look at each team, let me give you a little primer on how LHSAA power ratings are calculated. 

Teams get 10 points for each of their wins during the season and one point for each of their opponents’ wins (unless they play nine games; in that case it will be 1.11 points per win). They can gain additional “bonus” points for playing up in division – two points for each division. 

After all of those points are calculated, the total is divided by the number of games played by each team. For most teams, that is 10 games. For some, though, it may be nine. 

Rapides Parish has eight football-playing schools – Alexandria Senior High, Pineville and Tioga in Division I; Bolton, Buckeye and Peabody in Division II; Menard in Division III and Northwood-Lena in Division IV. 

Let’s start by eliminating the two schools who are out of playoff contention, Bolton and Northwood-Lena. The Bears are 0-9 on the season, while Northwood is 1-8. Both sit at No. 28 in the power ratings and aren’t getting in even if they pull off upset wins this week. 

That leaves us with six teams remaining. Now for the math. 

In Division I, Tioga currently sits at No. 9 as the Indians battle for one of the eight first-round byes. ASH is 13th, likely locked into a home playoff game, while Pineville sits at No. 23, squarely on the bubble for one of the final playoff slots. 

Tioga’s power rating of 12.72 sits slightly ahead of John Curtis and behind Acadiana and Catholic-Baton Rouge. Full disclosure: I thought Tioga’s thrilling 33-32 overtime win over Peabody would lock up a first-round bye for the Indians. Then I checked the power ratings the next day and saw they fell from No. 8 to No. 9, so that shows you what I know. 

Tioga needs to take care of business against Grant and it likely gets to a power rating of 12.9 – 13.0 if Marksville can upset Bunkie in the Catskin game. But will that be enough? 

The Indians can’t catch Acadiana without an unlikely upset by Barbe, but they could potentially leap Catholic should the Bears fall to unbeaten Zachary. That would put Tioga at No. 8, right? Not so fast. 

John Curtis faces Edna Karr, the top team in both the Louisiana Sports Writers Association Class 5A poll and the Division I Select power ratings. J.T. Curtis has a chance to break the all-time coaching wins record in U.S. high school football, so the Patriots have plenty of motivation to pull off the upset. A Curtis win would leapfrog Tioga in the power ratings. 

Tioga will be rooting for Barbe, Zachary and Karr to all win, which should be enough to give the Indians a first-round bye.  

ASH controls its own destiny. Beat West Ouachita and the Trojans are safely the No. 13 seed with a home playoff game. Lose, though, and they will need some help to remain in the top 16. 

Now let’s look at the odds that Pineville makes the playoffs. Option 1: Win and get in, likely at No. 22 or 23. Option 2: Lose and hope. A loss would drop the Rebels’ power rating from 8.64 to 7.90, giving Scotlandville, Lafayette, East Jefferson, Liberty and Higgins all the chance to win and jump them. 

Although none of those teams has more than three wins, odds are pretty high that Scotlandville, Lafayette and East Jefferson can win this week.  

In Division II, Peabody will host a home playoff game no matter the outcome of Friday’s game against Franklin Parish. The Warhorses could climb as high as No. 9 with a win or fall as low as No. 15 with a loss. Buckeye will be on the road in the first round, even if the Panthers upset unbeaten Jena. 

Menard’s fate is completely up in the air, especially since a win over Glen Oaks will only add 12 power points. The Eagles need some help from their non-district opponents, but their power rating is likely to drop either way, meaning they need a couple of the teams ahead of them to lose. 

Prediction: Tioga lands at No. 9, at home in the first round but without a bye. ASH holds steady at No. 13 and faces Byrd in the first round. Pineville ends up 25th on the outside looking in. Peabody beats Franklin Parish and ends up at No. 12 hosting No. 21 Buckeye. Menard drops to 18th and travels to Houma Christian. 

Now that I have a massive headache, I’m going to put my calculator away, enjoy some football these next two nights, then check in on the brackets Sunday to see just how wrong I am.